Wednesday, September 30, 2009

Cincinnati Bengals: If You Can’t Beat Em…Join Em

Three days after the franchises biggest win in nearly five years, nobody is dancing through the streets in Cincinnati. Things are different for the 2009 Cincinnati Bengals.

The Bengals hadn’t beaten the Steelers in Cincinnati since ’01, and had lost five in a row overall. After Sunday’s 23-20 victory, hope has sprung in a sports depressed city.

Gone are the thugs, gone are the over paid veterans cashing in one last fat check, gone are the player’s that worried more about stats than the team. This version of the Bengals has complied with the standard you must set to compete in the AFC North.

After watching the Ravens and Steelers running backs scamper all over them on the field for years, the Bengals have figured out that if you can’t beat em—join em.

The team has developed a power running game that has been grinding opponents down as the game wears on. RB Cedric Benson had 58 of his 76 yards in the second half, including a 23-yard touchdown run.

Benson has revived his career in Cincy and counting the last two games of the 2008 season with the first three this season, Benson leads the NFL in rushing yards.

The Bengals used to be known as a team that would light up the scoreboard, but give up plenty of points as well. In 09’ it’s the D that has been leading the way.

After collecting 17 sacks in ’08, the team leads the NFL with 10 after three games, led by Antwan Odom’s seven. The D line has also done a great job stopping the run. RB Willie Parker had only 17 yards on 11-second half carries. The D has yet to allow a 100-yard runner. For the season they are allowing 88.7 yards a game on the ground.

The linebackers have infused a certain toughness that was never there in years past. Rookie LB Rey Maualuga was taken off on a stretcher, only to be back in the game on the next series on Sunday. He has already forced two fumbles on the young season. Wily veteran captain Dhani Jones continues to lead by example with 17 tackles on the year.

The next test for the Bengals is beating a team they are supposed to thump. After being nine point underdogs to the Packers and four point home dogs to the Steelers, the Bengals are now four and a half point favorites on the road against the Cleveland Browns.

This Browns team is in shambles and most experts and pundits will be picking the Bengals.

But this isn’t the first time they have been in this situation.

After a wild win against the Ravens in the ’07 opener, the Bengals got into a shoot-out with the Browns that turned into a loss. This was the highlight of Derek Anderson’s career.

Guess who was named the starting QB today? Anderson.

Cleveland did not score an offensive touchdown in its last six games in ‘08—an NFL record. The lone offensive touchdown this season was Brady Quinn’s 26-yard pass to Robert Royal with 35 seconds left in the season opener against Minnesota.

The Browns’ last meaningful offensive touchdown was Jerome Harrison’s 72-yard run in Game 10 last season at Buffalo. It came on the first play of the fourth quarter.

Counting the 22 offensive plays the Browns ran in the Buffalo game after Harrison’s touchdown, that’s one touchdown in their last 525 offensive plays from scrimmage.

So clearly the Bengals should win. The Bengals are 6-4 at Cleveland since they re-entered the league in ’99. Carson Palmer should blow up a suspect secondary for the Browns. Benson should pick up another 100-yard rushing day (he had 177 yards in week 16 last year.)

Sunday is the litmus test to see where the team is mentally. Will they take the week off and get an unpleasant surprise? Or will they take care of business against a lesser opponent? Stay tuned

Monday, September 21, 2009

Cincinnati Bengals: Redeem Team Crashes the Party in Green Bay

Going into the season most experts figured the Cincinnati Bengals would be 1-1. But I doubt anybody could have mapped out the path to 1-1 the Bengals took.

After last week’s heartbreaking loss to Denver, the Bengals came into Lambeau Field (having never won a game there) and dominated the (1-1) Green Bay Packers 31-24.

For most of the game it seemed as if the Bengals were their own worst enemy. Cincinnati had 13 penalties for 100 yards, lots of false starts and holding calls.

Carson Palmer (15-23 for 185 yards, three TDs, two INTs) looked shaky early. He threw a pick-six to CB Charles Woodson and set up another Packer TD with an ill-advised throw that landed in Woodson’s hands as well.

In the second quarter, Bengals down 21-14, backed up at their own seven-yard line—facing third and 37, it seemed as if the game was unraveling for Palmer, whom had already thrown two picks in the quarter.

Palmer threw a screen pass to Daniel Coats and the field opened up like the Grand Canyon. Coats rumbled 23 yards before being stripped by a gang of Packers. But a hustling Laveranues Coles pounces on the ball as it bounces past the first down marker.

Four plays later Palmer connected with Chris Henry for a five-yard TD that not only tied the game, but also sucked all the wind out of Green Bay’s sail.

The offensive star of the game was RB Cedric Benson. He had 141 yards on 29 spectacular carries. He made the first man miss constantly. He fought for every inch of those 141 yards and helped eat up the clock in the fourth quarter.

The biggest star of the game wasn’t on offense. It was DE Antwan Odom and his five sacks. Yes FIVE sacks. He tied a Bengals single game record and now has seven in two games. He only had three all of last year.

He had seven QB hits on Aaron Rodgers, whom was hurried for the majority of the day. The Bengals D was light on the pressure in the first quarter, and the Packers had 14 points. But in the second half the Bengals D was constantly in Rodgers face and the Pack would only scrap together a field goal.

The tandem of former first-round picks CB Jonathan Joseph and CB Leon Hall in the secondary is superb.

They have played together for three years now and have been great in coverage the first two games (except the tip fluke play in week one). Joseph shut down WR Brandon Marshall last week and WR Greg Jennings put up a big goose egg yesterday.

While the rust of Palmer is still evident, the Bengals told the rest of the league that they wont be the “Bungals” this year. With so many new players on the roster—the losing culture that has plagued this franchise is a foreign concept to most of the team.

The Pittsburgh Steelers invade Paul Brown Stadium next week, with second place in the AFC North on the line.

The Bengals have never beaten Big Ben at home, but over half the team wasn’t there and doesn’t care. If this D can continue to pressure the QB and stop the run against a mediocre Pitt O-line, this game could force fans to re-think the powers of this division.

After a gloomy week in the Queen City, all is well again—at least for one week.

Friday, September 18, 2009

NFL Week Two Picks: More Questions Then Answers

Week one answered a few questions but created even more. Week two will answer some, but will leave fans more confused then ever. Ladies and gentlemen, the 2009 NFL!

Week one answered a few questions but created even more. Week two will answer some, but will leave fans more confused then ever. Ladies and gentlemen, the 2009 NFL!

Carolina at Atlanta- Jake Delhomme is already on the hot seat and needs, at the very least, a turnover free performance. After having 11 in consecutive games, fans in Carolina are ready to put Delhomme on the chopping block. The good news is that Delhomme’s teammates still believe in him.

Left tackle Jordan Gross was the most avid, telling USA Today, "I love that guy. He was one of the main reasons I wanted to re-sign here. I love blocking for him and he's our quarterback."

Wasn’t a huge fan of Atlanta going into this year and I’m still not sold on Michael Turner having another great year. CAROLINA 24-21

Minnesota at Detroit- Brett Favre will once again be able to play the game manager role. The Williams’ on the Vikings D-line will stuff the run and give Matthew Stafford nightmares. Adrian Peterson will more than likely win your fantasy round this week if you got ‘em. MINNESOTA 31-17

Cincinnati at Green Bay- If the Bengals can apply pressure to Rodgers, then this game will be a lot closer than most would think. If Carson Palmer can have some time in the pocket, then he will put up plenty of points, if the receivers can catch the ball (7 drops last week.) Too many if’s. GREEN BAY 20-17

Houston at Tennessee- The Texans were the biggest disappointment in week one. An angry Titans team is not the cure. If the Texans got blown out in it’s home opener, how will they score on the road against the airtight Titans D? I don’t think Matt Schaub has the answer, in fact, he just raises more questions on if he is a legit NFL QB.
TITANS 21-10

Oakland at Kansas City- Matt Cassel will be a game time decision, but this game comes down to the wire either way. It will be decided by a play on special teams or a dumb T.O. Who is more likely to commit a dumb turnover in the fourth quarter? JaMarcus Russell. KANSAS CITY 31-28

New England at New York- The Jets are talking lots of trash and the Patriots are sitting back smiling. Tom Brady looked a lot more comfortable in the second half and that’s a bad sign for the Jets. The Jets D looked great against the Texans, but it’s too early to tell if that means anything. A rookie QB in his second game, going against a Belichick D? NEW ENGLAND 20-17

New Orleans at Philadelphia- Drew Brees is currently the best QB in the league, and Donovan McNabb ribs won't allow him to play. The Saints offensive weapons are endless and the Eagles can’t win a shoot out with Kevin Kolb under center. NEW ORLEANS 31-17

St. Louis at Washington- Jason Campbell needs a win to get the Washington media off his back. Good thing the only scoreless team from week one comes to town. Clinton Portis will get a hundred yards and two scores… maybe by halftime. WASHINGTON 28-10

Arizona at Jacksonville- Arizona plays better on the road, and Jacksonville is not exactly a home field advantage. The Cardinals were banged up last week and Anquan Boldin looks to be feeling closer to 100 percent. The quest for Tim Tebow inches a little closer for the Jags. ARIZONA 24-20

Tampa Bay at Buffalo- After the Monday night debacle against New England, Buffalo is desperate. Trent Edwards looked like an above average NFL QB and that is great news for a QB challenged team like the Bills. BUFFALO 23-13

Pittsburgh at Chicago- If Willie Parker can’t move the chains, then the Bears have a chance. But with no Brian Urlacher, I don’t expect this to happen. Ben Roethlisberger will make more plays then the extremely overrated and whiny Jay Cutler. I would sit Matt Forte this week if he were on my fantasy team. PITTSBURGH 17-10

Cleveland at Denver- The Browns played superb for one half and still got blown away. The team’s only play-maker (Braylon Edwards) drops passes like the ball is on fire. They don’t have a running back, and their coach couldn’t decide on a QB till a few days before the season started. The D got abused by Peterson last week in Barry Sanders-like fashion.

At least the Broncos have a decent D with Champ Bailey and Elvis Dumervil.
DENVER 20-13

Baltimore at San Diego- The game of the week will come down to the running game of the Ravens. If they can grab an early lead and run Ray Rice to death, it should be a Ravens win. But if Phillip Rivers has a chance in the fourth quarter, my bet goes with the home team and the more experienced QB. BALTIMORE 22-16

Seattle at San Francisco- Frank Gore had 22 carries for 30 yards last week. No way they win if he puts up numbers like that again. The Matt Hasselback to T.J. Houshmandzadeh combination is going to do some serious damage to 49er corners. SEATTLE 27-19

New York at Dallas- This game has shoot-out written all over it. Tony Romo will be airing it out, but the O-line is a concern. He was sacked five times against a suspect Tampa D, while the Giants have the deepest D-Line in the NFL.

The Giants need a receiver to step up and take hold of the number one spot; my guess is the other Steve Smith. With all the hoopla surrounding the new Dallas stadium, the Giants come in and steal the first one. NEW YORK 34-28

Indianapolis at Miami- The Dolphins looked very vanilla against the Falcons. Chad Pennington has been the same average QB his entire NFL career. The Colts don’t have many options at receiver since Anthony Gonzalez will be out for two months. But I will take Peyton Manning and Dwight Freeney over the Fins Pennington and Joey Porter.

INDIANAPOLIS 23-16

Wednesday, September 16, 2009

Redskins, Panthers, Texans: No Need to Press Panic Button

Football games create colossal amounts of over-reacting. It makes sense; there are only 16 games in a season compared to 162 games in baseball.

But frantic fans are ready to jump ship on their team after only one game. Let’s take a look at three teams that shouldn’t be panicking…yet.


1.) Redskins- The Meadowlands is not an easy place to play by any stretch of the imagination. The Giants are a Super Bowl contender and looked great on D against the ‘Skins. Jason Campbell was 19-26 for 211 yards with a TD and INT for a QB rating of 93.6. Not terrible but he leaves something to be desired.

Enter St. Louis.

The next three games for the ‘Skins are home against the Rams, at Detroit, and home against the QB challenged Buccaneers. Righting the ship shouldn’t be much of a problem.

Santana Moss only had two catches for 12 yards in week one. Credit should be given to the Giants for making sure the top Redskins receiving threat didn’t beat them. But I expect some serious stat padding games over the next three weeks for the entire Redskin offense.

2.) Panthers- Boy did they look great in that first quarter against Philadelphia. An eight plus minute drive that ended in a DeAngelo Williams TD. Then the Panthers unraveled quicker than a Kayne West apology.

Jake Delhomme has been a turnover machine of late, but if you look at his overall body of work, you can trust him to bounce back. He has been in the league for nine years and will have a short memory going into Sunday’s match-up with Atlanta and the Dallas MNF game in two weeks.

The running game still has the dual threat with Williams and Jonathan Stewart. The D-line, led by Julius Peppers, can still create consistent pressure on the QB.

While the Panthers schedule isn’t as favorable as Washington’s, I think the veteran’s on this team keep the ship a sail. Don’t forget they won 12 games last year.

3.) Texans- Boy oh boy did the trendy pick of the year get embarrassed at home or what? Letting a rookie QB, making his first career start, come in and pick apart your supposed “improved” D at home is horrendous.

QB Matt Schabb had a dismal outing, throwing for 166 yards on 18-33 attempts with an INT. I expect him to play better as the season progresses as he learns what it takes to be a team leader. And the Jets D is looking like a force to be reckoned with under new head coach and former Ravens D coordinator Rex Ryan.

A trip to an angry Tennessee team awaits the Texans this week. This is a huge game for both teams.

Nobody wants to start 0-2. But I think the lack of Titans offense will allow this game to come down to one or two plays in the fourth quarter. It’s up to the Texans to decide which way it goes.

But after that, the schedule opens up favorable for Houston. After the Titans they play two home games in a row against the Jaguars and Raiders, followed by trips to Arizona and Cincinnati. That’s four very winnable games in a row, so 5-1 or 4-2 is still a very distinct possibility.

No need to hit the red panic button just yet Redskins, Panthers, and Texan fans. It’s going to be a long and grueling season that will have you feeling different about your team each and every Sunday.

Monday, September 14, 2009

Cincinnati Bengals: Offensively Challanged in Week One

Sunday’s Cincinnati Bengals and Denver Broncos game was a cold, brutal example of the old saying “it aint over till the fat lady sings”.

A brilliant drive by QB Carson Palmer put the Bengals up 7-6 with only 20 seconds to play.

But then the football Gods struck.

With 38 seconds to go, a QB Kyle Orton deep ball deflects into the air off CB Leon Hall’s hands and lands right into the gloves of WR Brandon Stokley.

Then 87 yards later the Broncos steal one in Cincinnati. Final 12-7. A rusty steak knife right through the middle of every Bengal fans heart.

Cincinnati’s Air Attack

The first pass of the game was an 18-yard bullet to Chris Henry. That was his only catch of the game. In fact, he wasn’t even thrown to again for the entire game.

On Palmer’s second pass, a 21-yard gain to OchoCinco, he looked like he was in midseason form with the kind of zip and accuracy Bengals fans have come to expect.

OchoCinco gets hit with a holding penalty that stalls the first drive and forces a punt. This would be the theme of the game, dumb mental errors.

The second drive is highlighted by another penalty and a huge third down drop by new Bengal Laveranues Coles. The pass simply bounced off his hands.

After the drive stalls on the Broncos 10 yard line, a terrible snap by long snapper Brad St. Louis results in a blown opportunity for three points.

Up to this point, the massive, Bengals O-line has looked respectable against the smaller, quicker Broncos D-line. RB Cedric Benson has space, and Palmer hasn’t been pressured.

This changes on the third drive. After another terrific throw by Palmer to OchoCinco for 34-yards, the O-line begins to fall apart. A blitz by Denver catches RT Anthony Collins off guard and this results in a 10-yard sack. Palmer didn’t have a chance on the play. They are unable to recover from a 2nd and 20 and punt the ball.

Cincinnati begins to move the ball down the field again on their next drive. FB Daniel Coats redeems himself with a 16-yard play after dropping an easy one earlier. After the O-line gets pushed back twice in a row, Laveranues Coles catches an 11-yard tight spiral from Palmer, first down at Denver’s 31.

On 3rd and six, Palmer forces a pass to OchoCinco. CB Champ Bailey tips the ball before OchoCinco can get to it, and Wesley Woodyard picks it off. It was a forced throw by Palmer that should have been incomplete, but on this day, it fell right into the arms of Woodyard.

After another drive of short Benson runs stall out, it’s halftime. Zero points for the Bengals. 3-0 Denver.

At this point Palmer is 9-15 for 132 yards with a INT, while Ochocinco had two receptions for 56 yards. They drove into Denver territory on their first FIVE drives but had nothing to show for it.

The second half wasn’t any better.

The Bengals had three drives in the quarter, but two of those went three and out. On the second drive, they got the ball on the Denver 45, but back-to-back sacks of Palmer killed that drive. He is getting no chance to read the D before the Broncos are in his face now.

FB Jermi Johnson drops a short throw then Coles followed suit with his third on the day. Great start with your new team Coles. Twice on Sunday, he dropped first-down passes on third down.

Seven dropped passes on the day for Cincinnati.

Through three quarters, the Bengals have a 201-167 advantage in total yards. Palmer line is 13 of 23 for 167 yards.

The fourth quarter starts with a 23-yard catch by OchoCinco erased by an offensive pass inference call on him. Palmer is facing more and more pressure as the game progresses. The lack of depth on the O-line is starting to be evident (thanks A. Smith).

The running game has come to a halt. Benson is getting no push from the O-line at the point of attack. Palmer is rushing throws because of the pressure.

Down 6-0 with 6:21 left the Bengals take over at their own 9-yardline.
OchoCinco has a 12 and a 13-yard catch sandwiched between a three-yard loss on the ground by Benson. A Palmer bullet to WR Andre Caldwell for 13 yards puts the Bengals on the Broncos 32.

With decent protection, Palmer finds a wide-open Brian Leonard for an 18-yard pickup. Great decision by Palmer, he was looking for somebody else but found the open man.

Inside the Broncos 10, Caldwell catches another that puts him down to the one-inch line. His butt was in, but the ball wasn’t.

With plenty of push, Benson bullies his way into the end zone for the first and only Bengals TD of the game with only 20 seconds left for Denver.

Then the refs’ inexplicably say that the previous play (Caldwell catch); was considered a lost challenge by Marvin Lewis and the Bengals. They were docked a timeout.

And some how they tack on 18 additional seconds. Too bad that with under two minutes in the game, EVERYTHING IS A BOOTH REVIEW.

You know the rest of the story… final Denver 12 Cincinnati 7.

“We have to find a way to score points on offense, and we will. It’s disheartening,” said Palmer, who was 21 of 33 for 247 yards and two interceptions.

“We moved the ball effectively, but just not into the end zone.”

He shook off some rust early, but looked fine for the most part. The second INT was a last prayer Hail Mary to end the game.

OchoCinco had five catches for 89 yards and looked rejuvenated. He was getting yards after catch (YAC), on every reception. Caldwell had 54 yards, Benson 32; Leonard 24, Henry 18, Coats 16, Coles 11 and Foschi 3.

The O-line had its moments, but is certainly a work in progress.

Coles is the goat of the game for his three drops.

The Bengals now go to Lambeau to play the Packers, and then it’s a date with the Steelers. Can they just hit the reset button?

Green Bay’s D was extremely aggressive against Chicago. QB Jay Cutler threw four INT’s and was roughed up physically by the Packers front seven. Palmer is going to have to keep his eyes on Cullen Jenkins all game long next week.

If Palmer and company can’t establish the run against a stout Packers frontline, it’s gonna be a loooong day. Thanks again A. Smith.

Friday, September 11, 2009

NFC Season Preview: Big Things In Big Packages

The NFC will be better than the AFC this year. The Super bowl will come from this conference. Let’s take a look at some picks that are sure to win somebody some dough in Vegas.

NFC East

1. Redskins (10-6)- This division will be tight but I give the Skins an edge. Jason Campbell is in desperation mode and so is his coach Jim Zorn. The addition of Albert Haynesworth is huge (literally). Combine Haynesworth with rookie DT Brian Orkapo and I think the Defensive line will offset the Giants for best in the division. The most desperate team in this division plays like it. They should get off to a great start with the Rams, Lions, and Bucs after opening night against the Giants.

2. Eagles (10-6)- Donovan McNabb and company will be business as usual on offense. But I’m concerned with the loss of defensive leader Brian Dawkins. He was a difference maker that will be missed. Add the Mike Vick distractions and rust and it equals a borderline play-off team.

3. Giants (8-8)- Looks like a down year in New York. The loss of Derrick Ward damages the running game big time. Brandon Jacobs is always banged up and needs lots of rest during games. Not so much this year. The receivers are mediocre at best, and Eli will struggle to live up to his new reputation of highest paid QB. If only Burress didn’t… eh I wont go there.

4. Cowboys (7-9)- Tony Romo will actually miss T.O. in week five after he watches Roy Williams drop yet another pass for a TD. The depth at receiver is terrible and one injury will spell disaster. They released three legit starters in the other Roy Williams, Greg Ellis, and Tank Johnson. The new stadium’s novelty will wear off quickly for the Cowboys.

NFC North

1. Packers (12-4)- Aaron Rodgers is going to have a huge year. Greg Jennings and Donald Driver is one of the best receiving combo’s in the league. Ryan Grant is healthy again and should have plenty of 100-yard games behind a rock solid o-line. This is the year THEY stick it to Favre, not vice versa.

2. Bears (10-6)- While I don’t think Jay Cutler is the savior, he is a vast upgrade over Kyle Orton. The D looks to be back up to their standards and will be in the top tier in the league. Matt Forte will have a break out fantasy season. Biggest concern is the lack of quality receivers for Cutler.

3. Vikings (9-7)- Is it a good idea to put your entire franchises hopes on a 40 year old that looks like a grandpa in HD? The Vikes will start off hot with a very favorable schedule. But just like last year, Favre’s team will fall apart again in the second half. His consecutive game streak will end at some point this season.

4. Lions (3-13)- A three-win improvement is usually a good thing for most NFL teams, unless of course they go winless the previous year. Matt Stafford will struggle early and often. The D still stinks and even the head coach Jim Schwartz admits he is looking to 2010.

NFC South

1. Saints (11-5)- This is the year the D actually becomes respectable. New D coordinator Gregg Williams has plenty of surprises up his sleeve to improve the wretched 08’ version. The offense is one of the best in the league. Drew Brees is a potential all-pro QB with plenty of weapons. Marques Colston, Pierre Thomas, Reggie Bush are all huge threats to opposing teams. Looking good in Nawlans.

2. Falcons (9-7)- Matt Ryan had a season any rookie QB would dream of. This year he comes back down to earth. Tony Gonzalez was a great pick-up and should compliment Roddy White well. But Michael Turner has the curse of 370 carries looming over him and I think he doesn’t stay healthy. Not to mention that all Turner’s biggest games were against the dregs of the league.

3. Panthers (7-9)- After last year’s colossal melt down, I can’t trust Jake Delhomme. He is too up and down to think he can lead the Panthers back to the play-offs. Part of the reason for their success last year was the two headed running attack of DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart. But Stewart is already banged up and the injury prone Williams will have to carry the majority of the load.

4. Buccaneers (3-13)- A rookie head coach fires the offensive coordinator he hired one week before the season? This team has disaster written all over it. Byron Leftwich is a solid back up, not a starter. The D is old and is without mainstay Derrick Brooks. Expect a long year in Tampa Bay.

NFC West

1. Seattle (10-6)- Matt Hasselback and T.J. Housmandzadeh spring hope in Seattle. Running back is an issue but being in this division is not. After a ridiculous amounts of injuries last year, I think the football karma Gods owe the Seahawks one.

2. Arizona (8-8)- Remember this team was only 9-7 last year. I can’t trust Kurt Warner to stay upright for 16 games again and that will spell disaster. Matt Leinhart is simply not smart enough with the X’s and O’s to be a quality QB in the NFL. Could be a long and painful season for the best receiving tandem in the league: Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin.

3. St. Louis (6-10)- Not a lot of excitement coming from Rams camp. Trent Green is back, until his next injury, but whom is he going to throw to? Tory Holt is a Jaguar now. Second overall pick Jason Smith will be great on the O-line. This could mean Steven Jackson has another big year. Too many ifs to be considered anything but mediocre.

4. San Francisco (4-12)- Thanks Mike Crabtree. The biggest need of the 49ers was receiver and they picked a great one. But a guy that has never played a down thinks he is better than the slotting system. So now the 49ers are stuck with the Shaun Hill to an ancient Isaac Bruce combo. Patrick Willis is one of the best linebackers in the game but needs more help. Take the under on 49er games this year.

Playoffs:

1.Packers
2. Saints
3. Seahawks
4. Redskins
5. Bears
6. Eagles

Wild Card:

(3) Seahawks over (6) Eagles, (5) Bears over (4) Redskins

Divisional:

(2) Saints over (3) Seahawks, (1) Packers over (5) Bears

AFC Championship:

(1) Packers over (2) Saints

SUPERBOWL:

(1) Packers over (3) Ravens

Thursday, September 10, 2009

AFC 2009 Season Preview: The Tide Turns

AFC EAST

1. New England (11-5)- Brady is back but more importantly Belichick is still around. He is a coaching genius that has dominated the decade. A lot of the veteran leadership is gone on defense: Mike Verbal, Teddy Bruschi, and Richard Seymour. This will cost them in the play-offs. Expect some shootouts in Foxboro. Last year 11-5 wasn’t good enough…. this year it will be plenty.

2. Miami (8-8)- Chad Pennington and company snuck up on teams last year with the wildcat formation. Now teams are fully aware of the Dolphins and the surprise factor is gone. Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams are a formidable duo in the backfield, but I can’t trust Pennington to stay healthy for two straight years. And Joey Porter will come back to earth after a super human ’08.

3. New York (7-9)- The defense will be rugged under new coach Rex Ryan. Special teams are great too. But the year of the rookie QB was last year and Mark Sanchez only had 16 college starts. The Meadowlands last year will be a forgettable one.

4. Buffalo (5-11)- Firing the offensive coordinator a week before the season spells desperation. T.O. will be angry at the average arm of Trent Edwards by week five and Dick Jauron will be canned by week 10.

AFC NORTH

1. Baltimore (11-5)- The loss of their defensive coordinator Ryan and stud linebacker Bart Scott will hurt. But Ray Lewis and Ed Reed are still around and the D wont miss a beat. Joe Flacco will improve his completion percentage and limit his turnovers in his second year as a pro. The only question is the receivers. This doesn’t haunt them until the play-offs when Derrick Mason (back after retiring ala Favre) and Mark Clayton are worn down.

2. Cincinnati (10-6)- Kiss the baby cause its over, Chad OchoCinco is back. I expect big things from the rejuvenated receiver after he clearly didn’t even try in ’08. Chris Henry will emerge as a legit deep ball threat (that is all he is capable of doing), and they will have a healthy Carson Palmer throwing to them. The No. 12 ranked defense got better with second round steal Rey Malaluga. Concerns about the O-line are real because if Palmer goes down, so does the chance of a winning season for the Bengals.

3. Pittsburgh (8-8)- Yes they return 19 of 22 starters and yes they have a coaching staff. But when a team is a unanimous choice for winning the division, something usually goes wrong. Depth is a concern with the Steelers. Either Big Ben goes down or injuries at another key position decimate them. Is this a blind guess? Yes, but such is the NFL.

4. Cleveland (3-13)- After firing one former Belichick crony (Romeo Cremmel) the Browns think another will change things (Eric Mangini). But not even Bill himself can win with Jamal Lewis as your starting running back, no tight end, and a retched secondary that will be burned all year long.

AFC South

1. Indianapolis (11-5)- The same things have been said about this team for the past six plus years. As long as Peyton Manning stays healthy this team is a lock for the playoffs. Bob Sanders could be lost for the season. This is a huge concern for a defense that is championship worthy with him, and mediocre without. It remains to be seen what the loss of Tony Dungy translates to on the field, my guess is more of the same.

2. Houston (10-6)- A trendy sleeper pick might be getting too much hype, but this offense will surely be top 10 material. Andre Johnson is a super star and Steve Slaton will reward all fantasy owners who grabbed him with some truly gaudy numbers. All of the questions lie with the defense. Mario Williams will need to have a Dwight Freeny kind of year to avoid lots of shoot-outs in Houston.

3. Tennessee (7-9)- They blew their chance last year, they were the best team. Now the Titans will face QB issues sooner rather than later and the D will miss Albert Haynesworth big time. I think Kerry Collins will struggle early and the fans will demand Vince Young. He’ll be playing by the second half of the year, not a good thing for the Titans.

4. Jacksonville (5-11)- The Jags were decimated by injuries last year but didn’t address some issues in the off-season. They picked up an over the hill Torry Holt and lost half of their dynamic running duo (Fred Taylor). Maurice Jones-Drew is not going to hold up for an entire season as the main back. He was in the perfect role and now the Jags will be asking too much from him. He is already banged up and will be the entire season.

AFC WEST

1. San Diego (12-4)- The Bolts win by default. They will be playing in the worst division in football. Put them in the NFC East and they would be 8-8. But L.T., Phillip Rivers, and Antonio Gates will be lighting up the scoreboard against the crappy Chiefs, Raiders and Broncos. I am concern with the D and the Shawn Merriman fiasco, but it shouldn’t be an issue come December.

2. Kansas City (7-9)- Matt Cassel will be a huge upgrade on offense, but losing Tony Gonzalez is a real head scratcher. Dwayne Bowe has put up good numbers with bad QB’s, so expect big numbers from him. Mike Verbel will bring veteran leadership to the D but his effects wont show up till 2010.

3. Oakland (6-10)- Darren McFadden will have a breakout season but I can’t trust JaMarcus Russell. He has yet to show anything in the NFL and if he gets off to a rocky start, don’t be surprised to see Jeff Garcia take his job. Adding Richard Seymour is a plus, but he doesn’t want to be there and his effort will be lacking. The Raiders will give up a whole lot of rushing yards.

4. Denver (4-12)- Kyle Orton will be playing with a glove to start the year, yikes. This team has bust written all over it. Rookie head coach Josh McDaniel seems to be overmatched in his role. Brandon Marshall is making him look like a fool and wont be an impact player till October. It’s going to be ugly in the Mile High City.


Playoffs:

1. San Diego
2. New England
3. Baltimore
4. Indianapolis
5. Cincinnati
6. Houston

(3) Baltimore over (6) Houston, (4) Indianapolis over (5) Cincinnati

(3) Baltimore over (2) New England, (1) San Diego over (5) Indianapolis

(3) Baltimore over (1) San Diego

Wednesday, September 9, 2009

Hard Knocks #4: Marvin Gets Angry

The latest edition of Hard Knocks should make Bengals fans uneasy about the upcoming season.

The show starts with Marvin Lewis screeching at his team about their poor performance in a loss to the St. Louis Rams.

"It's your football team. Find a way to fix it. Reach down inside and be a pro! I don't like this feeling. I can't stand it. I had this feeling yesterday morning when we were late getting on the field. We're going to be going on all cylinders. Because we're going to go with or without you. You guys wonder why you don't play and start. It's because you don't make tackles on interceptions. It's because you don't do what you're supposed to do."

Harsh words after a fake game but Lewis knows what’s at stake. HBO chronicles his history as a coach and basically calls the 2009 season his make or break year.

Classic Bengals moment: Marvin leaves his home at 5am. He pulls into the garage at Paul Brown Stadium. The security gate into the garage is broken. The arm won't go up so Marvin drives his SUV up over the curb to get around the pole.

Rookie safety Tom Nelson and his girlfriend take a carriage ride in downtown Cincinnati. The guy guiding the horses asked if they’re on vacation. He says they are both job searching.

The battle for the back-up fullback to Jermi Johnson heats up. Rookie Chris Pressley hits a guy so hard he bends his facemask. The equipment manager says he's never seen that before. Fui Vakapuna, the seventh round pick has better pass catching skills. In a coaches meetings it is determined they want a guy that can block. Good news for Pressley.

"That's the brother, not the star. That ain't No. 9" is overheard by a fan while Jordan Palmer (Carson’s little brother) signs autographs.

J. Palmer talks about how disappointed fans are when he signs autographs and they think he’s Carson. He also discusses a website he created, RUNPEE.COM.

It's designed to tell you the best point in a move to run to the restroom without missing much. There is a phone app that gives you a one minute warning when a moment is coming up and tells you what you are missing while you are gone.

As far as on the field, the younger Palmer is improving. One coach goes as far as to say he is the most improved player on the whole team. Against the Rams he floats a beautiful bomb over the defender’s head and Chris Henry gets an easy touchdown.


Carson calls Bernard Scott over during the Rams game. He puts his arm around him and praises him for bouncing back from the fumble that led to a TD by the Rams. Scott ran 22 yards on a third and long when they were backed up.

"Young fella, you're going to make mistakes...but that run you made right there coming out of the end zone, in a real game that's a game-changer," said Palmer who was still sidelined with his ankle injury. Good to see Palmer being a leader even when he isn’t out on the field.

The battle for the third running back between Brian Leonard and DeDe Dorsey looks to be the closest battle going into the season finale. Each offers a certain skill. Leonard is the bruiser that can get that tough yard and is an exceptional blocker. Dorsey has the home-run speed that the Bengals desperately need. Going into the last show it is still up in the air.

There are a lot of little things going on with the Bengals right now that Lewis doesn’t like, such as players arriving late to practice, players not tucking in their shirts and most importantly not taking care of the little things in games. Lewis says he isn’t coaching the pro’s, he is coaching a bunch of 8th graders.

Marvin is shown in his office talking to someone on the phone about the Andre Smith negotiations.

"I told Alvin (Smith’s agent) that I've been here seven years. I know them. I know Mike. He's not going to change. He's not going to cave". This is the kind of quote that Bengals fans have wanted to hear from Lewis about the owner. This is the real Mike Brown, a stubborn old man.

Finally the Bengals and the sixth overall pick Smith agree on a deal. Of course the first thing his agent Alvin Keels says when he signs is “Congrats, you’re now a multi millionaire,” instead of congrats you’re a Bengal.

This Keels guy has looked horrible on the show. He agreed to a contract that looks to be better for the Bengals after holding out for 32 days. His client has shown up weighing over 360 pounds and the Bengals put a weight clause in his contract. Smith will lose a lot of money if he doesn’t get under 350 pounds.

Keels has officially been “bungalized” by the team. Good luck getting any player that has HBO next year.

Over weight Andre walks into owner Mike Brown’s office to say hello and a hilariously uncomfortable scene ensues.

Mike says, "You've got a lot of hard work ahead of you. You are not in good shape from what I hear. You have to put your nose to the grindstone”. All of this while both men shake hands for about five seconds to long. Smith, high pitch voice and all agrees and keeps saying yes sir.

By the way…what the heck does put your nose to the grindstone mean?

“I’m eager to get back into football shape,” Smith claims. Bengals strength and conditioning coach Chip Morton tells Marvin they have to “widdle away the larger version”.

And 48 hours after he signs, Smith fractures his foot. He will be out for another three weeks. What a depressing ending. It is too early to label him a bust but jeez. What an awful start to a career. Smith is a mess.

Not a very encouraging show for Bengal fans.

Farve's Dirty Play for Vikings

Yes it is still only the preseason and yes the games mean absolutely nothing…but did you see Brett Favre’s third quarter crack block on Houston Texans defensive back Eugene Wilson knees?

In the wildcat formation with Percy Harvin playing quarterback, Favre lined up as a receiver. Wilson wasn’t even looking in Favre’s direction while running toward the ball and BAM Favre takes out his legs. A 15-yard penalty was issued to Farve on the play. While Wilson was just fine it begs the question, what is going on in Minnesota?

First of all, why is the old man even playing in the third quarter of a preseason game? Farve had already told reporters he thinks he cracked a rib because it hurts him to take deep breaths. So one would think that playing the entire first half of a meaningless game would be sufficient.

To his credit, 13 of 18 for 142 yards and a touchdown is nothing to sneeze at (although the TD was off a screen pass that went for 28 yards and the TD to Chester Taylor).

Favre has never played in a Wildcat formation, and he has never been relayed upon to make a block. I wouldn’t call this play if this were a play-off game! The Vikings gained seven yards in two Wildcat formation plays.

That play in a nutshell shows you why the Vikings are in trouble. They are a desperate team that is taking a lot of big risks. Head coach Brad Childress seat will get incredibly hot if his team stumbles off the bat. Childress knows this and is basically moving all of his chips to the center and crossing his fingers.

I’m not sure if he even knows what to expect from Favre at this point. You can talk about the easy schedule, the dome and the familiarity he has with the offense till your blue in the face, but in the end Favre is a 40-year-old gun-slinger that will be amongst the leaders in interceptions.

He wore down in December and arguably cost the New York Jets a play-off spot with his lousy play. He has already set a bad example with his complete disregard for training camp, a time when players bond and actually develop some chemistry. Clearly Favre could care less about anything people think about him.

The big question will be if he can also be a league leader in touchdowns. IF he has to keep making blocks then the answer is a definitive NO.

Keep using Favre as a blocker coach Childress, and watch the odds of losing your bet increase dramatically. If Favre goes down they are back to square one at quarterback, which will be the case either way at the end of the 2009 season (unless Favre wants to play the retirement two-step again).

Good luck Minnesota because it looks like your going to need it.

HBO Hard Knocks No.3

The third install of HBO’s Hard Knocks featuring the Cincinnati Bengals was by far the most comical one to date.

The rookie talent show had a little bit of anything. Nothing was off limits as rookies poked fun at Roy Williams’ former relationship with pop star Kelly Rowland. So the guys posted pictures of Kelly all over Williams’s room and showed him on the bed crying.

A rookie did his best Andre Smith impression by doing a 40-yard dash with his shirt off. Those offensive linemen need a manzier or a bro, some sort of support.

Another rookie dressed as Dhani Jones and did his Dhani Tackles the Globe impression. Even Marvin Lewis couldn’t stop laughing.

While getting treatment, Cincinnati's trainer tells a surprised Carson Palmer that his ankle sprain will take "several weeks" to heal. Palmer replies that he heals fast and has more white blood cells than the average human being. The trainer doesn’t laugh.

Yet this is the same guy that was basically smiling when he told tight end Reggie Kelly that his season was over with a torn ACL. Yet another example of how important Palmer is to the entire franchise from top to bottom.

The show moves into a couple of roster battles, starting with the secondary.

Rookie free-agent safety Tom Nelson is making lots of plays and is opening the eyes of Bengals coaches. The plays Nelson is making this year is reminiscent of some of the plays 2008 draft pick Corey Lynch made in last year's camp. But currently Lynch is struggling and Nelson is thriving as both players likely are battling for one of the team's final roster spots.

In preseason game number two against New England, Nelson had a sack and a forced fumble that ended up winning the game for the Bengals. Lynch looked timid and the coaches noticed his lack of aggression. It looks like the rookie has the edge right now in this match up.

It appears DeDe Dorsey and Brian Leonard are battling for one running back spot. Leonard is rock-solid but not spectacular, while Dorsey brings a "wow factor" that Cincinnati is looking for behind starter Cedric Benson. Dorsey has shuffled around the NFL, including a prior trip to Cincinnati. Leonard was a bust for the St. Louis Rams and is trying to prove his worth for another team. Dorsey had the big run against the Patriots, but the competition is far from over.

After watching this episode, we now know that second round pick Rey Maualuga will be a starting linebacker when the season starts in two weeks. In the words of linebackers coach Jeff Fitzgerald, "for the betterment of the team," Maualuga should start.

And you can see why, Maualuga is always ready to knock somebody on the ground. Whether it be an offensive lineman or a running back, whoever Maualuga hits, goes down. The concern with Maualuga coming out of USC was that he was undisciplined and a freelancer. His style of play may fit right in with what the Bengals need, a guy that won't think too much. The coaches seemed giddy watching the tape on him.

He even made a great joke yet again at the expense of Andre Smith. Maualuga was getting yelled at for a blown assignment in practice then responded “At least I came to camp on time”. Burrrrn. Smith is getting joked on left and right and he isn’t even signed yet. Can’t imagine the sort of hazing he will receive if/when he finally does sign.

Chad Ochocinco kicking the extra point against New England was still funny, even after seeing it a thousand times on ESPN already.

“Estaban Ochocino is back. The most interesting footballer in the world” he told Bengals media relations director after the kick in a reference to the Dos Equis commercial.

Watching the coaches in the press box when they heard Marvin say Chad was going to kick was hilarious. Offensive coordinator Bob Bratkowski tried to keep a straight face, but even he broke out in a laugh as Chad ran out on the field. It was comical to see how the players and coaches reacted to Chad when stuff like this happens.

This should show fans and the media why the Bengals keep Chad around. No matter what happens in the off-season, they all know that when Chad comes to camp, he is ready to play. He works hard and he keeps the team loose. A referee even told Chad “Child Please”, after he had been complaining about a call.

Chad is shown shopping for jewelry and comes away with an $11.50 pair of earrings. “Just because you’ve got money, doesn’t mean you’ve got to spend it. And don’t forget, I am rich!

And he has a new phrase “kiss the baby” which is basically saying its over, start the buses.

Funniest line of the night, Chad’s slogan for his new product: “Chad Ochocinco condoms, catches everything your Johnson shoots”.

Bengaldom moment of the show: the coaches decide to move second year defensive tackle Jason Shirley to the offensive line. He has never played anything but D-line, but the Bengals, still missing #6 overall pick Andre Smith, are desperate for O-line help and are taking a huge gamble.

Shirley was shown the very basic techniques that looked like O-linemen learn in middle school. But the good news for Bengals fans is that Shirley did play well against the Patriots.

Overall this was my favorite episode to date in terms of comedy and learning about the position battles on the field. From the look of the show this Bengals has more team camaraderie than ever before during the past 15 years. And best of all, nobody’s getting in trouble!

But HBO had to get this jab in at the end of the show. Mike Brown to coaches: “I don’t know when he’s going to sign (A.Smith). We have no reason to believe it’s going to be any time soon.”

This is why the Bengals are held back, their owner/GM Mike Brown. HBO is doing a great job of showing it without even having to say a word.