Not a very good slate of games this week. Lots of terrible teams playing early season contenders. I count only three games that feature two teams above .500. How does that happen? The result is some ridiculously high spreads that smart bettors can take advantage of.
Bengals +8.5 @ Ravens- Cincinnati is still not getting much respect from the wise guys in Vegas. QB Carson Palmer continues to show flashes of brilliance, but has yet to put together a full game. If Ravens LT Jared Gaither (neck) can't play—the entire O-line shuffles around.
With the confidence of the Bengals rising by the day, expect another nail bitter for the 2009 cardiac kids that will come down to who has the ball last. Oh and beware; WR Chad OchoCinco has a special Ricky Bobby Talladega Nights TD dance to display…assuming he reaches pay dirt.
Vikings @ Rams +10- QB Brett Favre is due for a let down right? After last week’s sweet revenge, a let down is in store. He is spending all week watching and thinking about his stellar performance last week. Now I’m not saying the Rams are going to win outright…but for once this season they will put up a fight.
Raiders +15.5 @ NY Giants- This is waaay too big of a spread for an NFL game. Factor in the questionable status of QB Eli Manning and the chance that David Carr could start is enough for me to side with Oakland and QB Ja “off the mark” Russell.
Buccaneers +15 @ Eagles- Donovan McNabb is going be a bit rusty and slow after being out the past three weeks with broken ribs. And surprisingly enough, Tampa Bay’s Josh Freeman looked like a serviceable NFL QB last week against the ‘Skins. The Eagles can win by two TD’s and the Bucs will still cover. Good enough for me.
Cowboys -8.5 @ Chiefs- Cowboy fans are losing patience with Tony Romo. Doesn’t he know it’s only October? He isn’t supposed to start playing this bad till the holiday shopping season is in full swing? The remedy for Romo is a terrible Chiefs team that has lost their once intimidating home field advantage. Should have stayed a backup Matt Cassel.
Steelers -10.5 @ Lions- QB Matthew Stafford is questionable, but the chance of the Lions winning is not. The Steelers usually steam roll over the crappy teams and Detroit fits the bill quite nicely. The emergence of RB Rashard Mendenhall is frightening to the rest of the AFC just as the “fast” had been removed from Willie Parker’s name.
Browns @ Bills -6 – If it’s brown flush it down. After watching WR Braylon Edwards drop and punch his way out of town, other Browns player’s must be hatching schemes to kick Grady Sizemore’s brother or slap Shaq’s agent. Or just go for the gold and attack King James himself.
Redskins+3.5 @ Panthers- Tough one to pick. Both teams are underachievers that have left little hope for their respective fan bases in 2009. QB Jason Campbell is got to be living in a hotel at this point—ready to get his pink slip at any time—while Carolina’s QB Jake Delhomme isn’t going anywhere. Give me the points with the desperate QB with two wins over the win less comfortable QB.
Falcons @ 49ers -2.5- 49ers QB Shaun Hill is a legit NFL “game manger.” He is careful with the ball and seems to have a good grasp of the offense. With a solid running game (minus Frank Gore this week) and a punishing D, San Fran is legit.
Atlanta’s QB Matt Ryan has already made a name for himself, but he looked lost at times against the Pats. Plus the D isn’t of the same caliber of the ’08 team. Plenty of question marks surround this team.
Texans+5.5 @ Cardinals- The loser of this game is toast and the winner can toast to salvaging their season. Still waiting on the monster fantasy game for RB Steve Slaton.
Jaguars+1 @ Seahawks- This game should be picked with a flip of the coin. The Jags suddenly look decent two weeks in a row after laying two eggs. The Seahawks play well at home…but are starting QB Seneca Wallace. A wide range of results are plausible, none of which I would be too surprised about. Stay away from this one.
Patriots -3 @ Broncos- The Cinderella story ends this week in Denver. QB Kyle Orton can only be competent four games a year. After that you’re playing with house money. Too bad he already used up his four good games. Advantage goes to the veterans QB Tom Brady and Bill Belichick over the young Orton and Josh McDaniels.
Colts -3.5 @ Titans- Does Vegas know something about this game? Are they unaware of how money QB Peyton Manning is in regular season night games? Have they watched Titans QB Kerry Collins force errant throws to his mediocre at best receivers? This game is almost too easy…which makes me wonder what secret info Vegas knows. Screw it I’m still talking the Colts.
Jets -2 @ Dolphins- After a minor setback last week, the Jets will be ready to take out their anger on the ultra mediocre Dolphins. This is QB Mark Sanchez’s first prime time game and the will be ready. WR Edwards is expected to play—not sure if this is a great idea—look for him to be used as more of a decoy.
Riddle me this batman…who decided that the Dolphins should host two of the first five MNF contests? People don’t care about the Wildcat that much.
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I'm assuming you're picking SF over the Falcons, though I didn't see you explicitly say so. I have to disagree with you about Matt Ryan and his performance against the Patriots. He had flashes on a few drives in which he was picture-perfect, and in the second half, many of his money throws were called back by penalties, including a touchdown to Michael Jenkins. If the Falcons open up the playbook and stop pretending they can run the ball like they did last year, Matt Ryan is fully capable of taking over a game.
ReplyDeleteMatt Ryan crushed the 49ers. This was a rough week for my picks
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